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The Lindy effect is a theory of the life expectancy of non-perishable things that posits for a certain class of nonperishables, like a technology or an idea, every additional day may imply a longer (remaining) life expectancy: the mortality rate ''decreases'' with time. This contrasts with living creatures and mechanical things, which instead follow a bathtub curve, where every additional day in its life translates into a shorter additional life expectancy (though longer overall life expectancy, due to surviving this far): after childhood, the mortality rate ''increases'' with time. == Origin == The origin of the term and idea can be traced to Albert Goldman and a 1964 article he had written in The New Republic titled "Lindy's Law'.〔http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/10066789/television-lindys-law〕 In it he stated that "the future career expectations of a television comedian is proportional to the total amount of his past exposure on the medium". The term Lindy refers to the NY Deli Lindy's where comedians "foregather every night at Lindy's, where... they conduct post-mortems on recent show biz "action".〔http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=b4b28db8-3c3c-4414-8b27-2cae7b0f42ca%40sessionmgr10&vid=7&hid=126〕 Benoit Mandelbrot formally coined the term Lindy Effect in his 1984 Book ''The Fractal Geometry of Nature''. Mandelbrot expressed mathematically that for certain things bounded by the life of the producer, like human promise, future life expectancy is proportional to the past. He references Lindy's Law and a parable of the young poets’ cemetery and then applies to researchers and their publications: “However long a person’s past collected works, it will on the average continue for an equal additional amount. When it eventually stops, it breaks off at precisely half of its promise.“ Nassim Taleb furthered the idea in the ''The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable'' by extending to a certain class of nonperishables where life expectancy can be expressed as power laws. In Taleb's book ''Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder'' he for the first time explicitly referred to his idea as the Lindy Effect, removed the bounds of the life of the producer to include anything that doesn't have a natural upper bounds and incorporated it into his broader theory of the Antifragile. Mandelbrot agreed with Taleb's expanded definition of the Lindy Effect: "() suggested the boundary perishable/nonperishable and he () agreed that the nonperishable would be powerlaw distributed while the perishable (the initial Lindy story) worked as a mere metaphor." The Lindy effect is a more general form of the later Copernican principle, in the sense the generalized Doomsday argument by J. Richard Gott.〔(Predicting Future Lifespan: The Lindy Effect, Gott's Predictions and Caves' Corrections, and Confidence Intervals ), Colman Humphrey〕 This states that the future life expectancy is ''equal'' to the current age, not simply proportional, and is based on a simpler argument that, barring additional evidence, something is halfway through its life span. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Lindy effect」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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